史龙祥:上海对外经贸大学国际经贸学院副教授,硕士生导师。研究方向:国际贸易与金融理论。
F822
本文对人民币贸易结算的路径风险进行分析,探讨不同路径风险的管理措施与现行宏观经济目标之间的协调性,并对相应时期人民币与日元贸易结算的基础性因素加以比较。结论认为,人民币贸易结算在市场份额、汇率稳定性方面优于日元国际化的基础,但在贸易结构方面处于劣势。“出口外币结算为主、进口人民币结算为主”的现有路径安排不利于规避汇率风险、减少收支顺差、促进贸易结构升级,并且会产生人民币境外债权,从而形成货币政策外部约束。但目前进行路径调整的条件还不成熟,未来发展应着重优化出口商品结构,逐步实现由单一路径主导向多路径协调发展的转变。
This paper makes comparative analysis on risks in varied routes of currency invoicing and relationships between different routes and economic targets. Moreover, the prospect of cross-border trade invoicing in RMB has been predicted on the ground of comparative analysis on determinant factors about internationalization of RMB and Yen in respective period. The conclusion has shown that trade invoicing in RMB has been superior to Yen’s internationalization in the aspects of market share in trade and stability of exchange rate, while underdeveloped trade structure has been its disadvantage. The current pattern of “export mainly invoicing in foreign currency while import mainly invoicing in RMB” does not benefit to hedging risk on firms, reducing trade surplus, promoting trade structure, and it will cause new problem of obligatory right in RMB abroad which creates external constraint on monetary policy. However, it should not been changed in current situation. The focus should be promoting quality of export commodities in order to coordinate the relationships between routes of currency invoicing and economic targets. Consequently, cross-border trade invoicing in RMB can be upgraded from single-pattern leading to multi-pattern interacting.
史龙祥,王乐,王黎,谢文斌.基于国际比较视角的人民币贸易结算路径风险研究*[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2014,(4):28-38.
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