韩非非:大连理工大学经济学院研究生。研究方向:国际贸易学(WTO方向)。
F743.1
已持续10多年之久的多哈回合谈判至今仍未取得最终成果,但也已达成了许多协议。如果这些协议在WTO各成员中得到实施的话,会促进世界经济福利的增加,但对于各成员会产生或好或坏的影响。本文主要以市场准入谈判为研究对象,在2008年12月草案的基础上,确定农产品和非农产品关税减让的模式,用CGE模型模拟分析了多哈回合市场准入谈判对中国的宏观经济影响,模拟结果显示,农产品中敏感产品的选择以及非农产品系数的确定会减小关税减让政策对我国总收入、总消费以及总投资等宏观经济指标的影响程度。
The Doha Round negotiations which have continued a decade much longer have not get the final result. But negotiations have signed many protocols can be implemented, if these protocols could be the actual application in the WTO members, it will promote integral economic welfare of the world, but it will bring about good or bad influence for each specific member states. In this paper, we regards the market access negotiations as the study. On the basis of the draft in December 2008 determined on agricultural and non-agricultural tariff reduction mode, we analyzed the macroeconomic impact of market access negotiations of the Doha Round to China with the CGE model simulation. simulation results show that the selection of agricultural sensitive products and non-agricultural coefficient will reduce impact degree on macroeconomic indexes of China's total revenues, total consumption and the total investment and the like.
韩非非.多哈回合市场准入谈判对我国宏观经济的影响——基于CGE模型的分析[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2015,(2):5-19.
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