赵恢林:上海对外经贸大学国际经贸学院研究生。研究方向:服务贸易,世界经济及房地产经济。
F293.3
始于2015年的一线城市房价持续上涨,在公众预期的作用下变得尤为严重,如何稳定房价已经成为“新常态”下政府面临的最棘手问题之一。本文构建了一个有政府控制房价的动态房价模型,试图从理论角度分析房价持续上涨的成因和相应的对策。本文证明,房价在存在公众预期下呈现一个不稳定的均衡状态,即使房价不具备上涨的基础,对房价或者未来收入的乐观预期仍然会引起房价从均衡状态走向持续上升。这种情况下,政府的限购、限贷等政策并不能稳定房价,其作用甚至可能适得其反而加剧波动。本文提出了一种房价的内生贴息方法,从理论上可以证明该方法能够消除房价持续上涨的动因,从而可以较好地稳定房价,进而具体讨论了房价贴息方法在中国控制房价的操作性,为“新常态”下的房价政策提供全新的思路。
The first-line house prices, which began in 2015, continued to rise and became particularly serious under the expectation of the public. How to stabilize housing prices has become one of the biggest challenges facing the government in the "new normal" period. This paper constructs a dynamic house price model with government control house price, and tries to analyze the causes and corresponding countermeasures of house price rising from a theoretical point of view. This paper proves that there is an unstable equilibrium in the expected price, and even if the price does not have the basis of the rise, the optimistic expectations of house prices or future income will still lead to a continuous rise in house prices from a balanced state. In this case, the government's purchase or provision of down payment policy can not stabilize the price, and even the role may be counterproductive, speed up the fluctuations. This paper presents a kind of house price endogenous discount method, theoretically can prove that the method can eliminate the reasons for the continued rise in house prices, which can be a very good price stability. Finally, it also discusses the specific operation of housing prices in China, and provides a new reference for China's housing policy during the "new normal" period.
赵恢林,黄建忠.稳定房价:一个简单的房价贴息规则——基于动态OLG扩展模型分析[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2017,(5):25-33.
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