李国栋:上海对外经贸大学副教授,博士。研究方向:实证产业组织。
F269.22
本文受国家自然科学基金“新实证产业组织视角下银行竞争对企业信贷融资的异质性影响及对策研究”(项目编号:71403165)资助。
本文首先从国家和城市两个层面梳理了2016至2017年我国新能源汽车的推广政策,然后基于城市层面数据分析新能源汽车销量占比与推广政策的经验关系,最后重点以上海市2016年1至12月共66款新能源车型的月度销量数据分析财政补贴及免费牌照两个推广政策对需求的影响。研究发现:推广政策强度与城市新能源汽车销量占比呈显著正相关关系,财政补贴及免费牌照政策能显著有效地提高消费者的新能源汽车需求;反事实分析表明这些推广政策的退出会使新能源车销量出现明显下降。因此,在新能源汽车市场仍需加强培育的情况下推广政策有必要继续维持,推广政策的退出需要针对不同企业或车型加以区别设计。
In this paper, we firstly sort out the national and municipal promotion policies for the NEV industryin China, and then examine the empirical relationship between the policy strength and the sales proportion ofNEVs among the total automobile sales, and finally explore the impact of two promotion policies, includingfiscal subsidy and free license, on consumer demand using sales data of 66 NEV models from Shanghai during2016. Results show that the policy strength is positively related with the NEV sales proportion, and that fiscalsubsidy and free license policies can effectively increase the demand for NEVs. Also, counterfactual analysisindicates that the withdrawal of these two policies will lead to a significant decline of NEV sales. Therefore, it is .necessary to maintain the promotion policies when the NEV market still needs to be enlarged, and if needed, theexit of promotion policies should be designed carefully towards different firms or models.
李国栋,罗瑞琦,张鸿.推广政策对新能源汽车需求的影响——基于城市和车型销量数据的研究*[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2019,(2):49-58.
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