贾玉成:天津社会科学院城市经济研究所,助理研究员,博士。研究方向:国际投资和国际贸易。
F13/F42/F742
本文受教育部基地重大课题“对外直接投资对中国制造业产业升级的影响研究”(项目编号:15JJD790018)、天津市社会科学规划项目“ 基于要素流动的京津冀协同创新与天津环城区产业优化升级研究”( 项目编号: TJYJQN18 -005)、天津社会科学院青年课题基金“从自贸区向自贸港转型:深化天津外向型经济发展战略的研究”( 项目编号: 18YQN-02 )的共同资助。
本文使用2006~2014年31个国家对华贸易摩擦数据,实证检验了经济周期、经济政策不确定性对贸易摩擦的影响。结果发现:经济下行趋势扩大贸易摩擦规模显著;东道国和母国的经济政策不确定性与贸易摩擦显著正相关,且东道国相对经济政策不确定性与贸易摩擦呈正相关,表明东道国是对华贸易摩擦的“主导者”。基于以上结论,本文就应对外部市场环境、降低不确定性,化解贸易争端、改善贸易质量,构建合作共赢的经贸关系建言献策。
Using trade friction data from 31 countries in 2006-2014, the paper empirically tested the impact ofeconomic cycle and economic policy uncertainty on trade friction. The results show that the downward trend ofthe economy has significantly increased the scale of trade friction; The economic policy uncertainty of the hostcountry and the home country is positively related to trade friction, and the host country is positively related toeconomic policy uncertainty and trade friction, indicating that the host country is the "leader" of trade frictionwith China. Based on the above conclusions, this paper makes suggestions on how to deal with the externalmarket environment, reduce uncertainty, resolve trade disputes, improve trade quality, and build win-wineconomic and trade relations.
贾玉成,常烃.经济周期、经济政策不确定性与对华贸易摩擦——从中美贸易摩擦谈起*[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2019,(3):58-68.
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