朱民:清华大学国家金融研究院院长、IMF原副总裁,博士生导师。研究方向:宏观经济与金融。
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突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情冲击全球经济,当前全球已进入抗疫与经济复苏并行阶段,本文以意大利为切入点深入探究全球复工复产与经济复苏之路。意大利经济的供需两端在局部封锁、全国封锁、停工停产的疫情防控过程中遭受了重大的冲击,出口、就业出现大幅恶化,预计上半年的经济萎缩将达13%。随着疫情进入平台期、复工复产进程的开启,意大利的经济复苏又面临着疫情二次爆发、家庭消费承受永久损失、产业链运转恢复缓慢、国际市场需求萎缩、部分产业链外迁、宏观政策空间有限等困难与挑战,全年经济陷入深度衰退已成定局,亟需欧盟及欧央行的强力支持才能有效降低意大利坠入长期萧条的风险。
Work resumption and economic recovery are difficult to be smooth sailing for Italy, which projectscommon pain points of global economic recovery in the shadow of COVID-19. This article takes Italy as thecase of the breakthrough point to discuss the global recovery path. To fight the epidemic, both supply anddemand sides of the Italian economy have suffered a severe impact in the course of local blockade, nationalblockade and production shutdown, and exports, employment has deteriorated sharply. In the first half-year,Italy's GDP is expected to shrink by 13% compare to 2019. With the epidemic moving into the platform period,Italy's resumption process is facing several difficulties and challenges, such as the second wave of epidemics,permanent losses of household consumption, slow recovery of industrial chain, international market demandshrinking, part of the shift in industrial chain and macro-policy space is limited. It's no doubt that the wholeyear of Italy's economy has fallen into a deep recession, only if strong support from the European Union and theEuropean Central Bank would effectively reduce the risk of long-term depression in Italy.
朱民,唐朝,郑重阳.新冠肺炎疫情下全球经济复苏之路探索——来自意大利的启迪[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2020,(4):5-20.
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