余淼杰:北京大学博雅特聘教授,博士生导师,教育部长江学者特聘教授,国家杰青基金获得者,经济学博士。研究方向:国际贸易学、国际经济学、发展经济学。
F720
本文受国家自然科学基金杰青项目“国际贸易与中国经济发展”(项目编号:71625007)、国家社会科学基金重大项目“拓展贸易多元化”(项目编号:20ZDA050)、重点项目“企业创新与全要素生产率提升和质量升级研究”(项目编号:16AZD003)的资助。
百年未有之大变局下,中国面临中美经贸摩擦升级、多边经贸合作趋向停滞、传统全球价值链面临破裂风险的新挑战。中国政府明确提出加快推动形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。规模巨大的市场,深度融入全球价值链,产业聚集链明显,交易成本较低是中国开展双循环的优势和基础。内循环重点要做好:1.以中性原则推进要素的市场化;2.构建全面开放的新格局,推进贸易自由化;3.改善营商环境,推进投资便利化;4.以积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策提升居民消费;5.发展“两新一重”推进工业化、城镇化、信息化三化融合;6.通过重点发展都市圈和城市群推进区域经济一体化。对于外循环,第一大重点是大力推进“一带一路”倡议切实落地,第二大重点是发展区域经济合作伙伴关系。同时,要巩固中国全球价值链中心节点位置,重点关注发展数字贸易,以技术创新和数字化转型为主要抓手。
In the unprecedentedly dramatic situation, China faces the new challenges of escalating Sino-US trade frictions, the stagnation of multilateral economic and trade cooperation and the risk of rupture of traditional global value chains. The huge market, the deep integration into the global value chain, the obvious industrial agglomeration chain and the low transaction cost are the advantages and foundation of China’s dual circulation development pattern. The Chinese government clearly proposes to accelerate the formation of a new development pattern in which domestic economic cycle plays a leading role while international economic cycle remains its extension and supplement. The focus of the internal circulation should be done by: (1) promoting the marketization of production factors with the principle of neutrality; (2) building a new pattern of comprehensive opening and promoting trade liberalization; (3) improving the domestic business environment and promoting investment facilitation; (4) promoting domestic consumption with positive fiscal policy and sound monetary policy; (5) promoting industrialization, urbanization and information integration; (6) promoting regional economic integration through development of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations. For the external circulation, the first major focus is to vigorously promote the Belt and Road Initiatives to the ground, and the second major focus is to develop regional economic partnerships. Meanwhile, it is necessary to consolidate the central node position of China’s global value chain, focus on the development of digital trade, and take technological innovation and digital transformation as the main grasp.
余淼杰.“大变局”与中国经济“双循环”发展新格局*[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2020,(6):19-28.
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