王晓燕:清华大学五道口金融学院博士后,清华大学国家金融研究院国际金融与经济研究中心(CIFER)助理研究员,经济学博士。研究方向:国际贸易、国际区域经济合作、国际金融。
F752.7/F757
国家社会科学基金“防范化解重大风险”重大专项项目“妥善处置中美经贸摩擦风险研究”(项目编号:18VFH003);国家自然科学基金青年项目“产品内分工视角下的全球价值链发展对就业创造与分配的影响研究”(项目编号:71803011);国家统计局2017年投入产出课题“贸易摩擦对中国经济影响分析”(项目编号:07);中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目“中美贸易争端与疫情下中国高新技术产品的进口与出口质量研究”(项目编号:2020T130358)的资助
中美相互加征关税已逾两年,本文通过梳理相关研究发现,国内外学者就中美加征关税影响的绝大部分研究结论具有较高一致性:加征关税会对包括中美在内的全球经济增长前景产生不利影响;加征关税有害于中美两国福利水平,无助于解决中美贸易失衡、无助于美国制造业就业回流、无助于实现更公平的贸易格局;加征关税恶化了全球贸易形势并对第三国产出溢出影响,具体方向取决于受影响国贸易结构及其与中美在特定产业的竞争关系。在回答中美加征关税对中美两国影响谁更显著,人民币贬值是否有助于缓解关税短期冲击,以及加征关税是否对全球多边格局产生长期的结构性影响等方面,国内外学者依然存在争论,成为后续持续研究的主要方向。
The process of increasing Sino-US tariffs has been over two years. By combing the recent years’ relevant research, we find that most of the conclusions on the impact of increasing Sino-US tariffs are highly consistent: increasing Sino-US tariffs have negative effects on the prospects of global economic growth including China and the United States; increasing Sino-US tariffs are detrimental to the welfare of China and the United States, cannot help to solve the Sino-US trade imbalance, cannot help the return of US manufacturing employment, and cannot help to achieve a fairer trade pattern; further, increasing Sino-US tariffs have aggravated the global trade situation and created the spillover effect on third-party exports, which depends on the trade structure of the affected country and its competitive relationship with China and the US specifically. However, domestic and foreign scholars still exist arguments on whether the impact of increasing Sino-US tariffs on China is more significant or not, whether the devaluation of the RMB would help alleviate the shortterm shock of tariffs or not, and whether the increasing Sino-US tariffs have a long-term structural impact on the global multilateral structure or not. These controversies will become the main directions of future research.
王晓燕,李昕,鞠建东.中美加征关税的影响:一个文献综述*[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2021,(3):36-48.
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