蒙英华:上海对外经贸大学国际经贸学院教授,经济学博士。研究方向:国际贸易理论与政策。
F752
国家社科基金一般项目“区域服务贸易协定效应测算及政治经济学解释”(项目编号:16BJL088);上海市人民政府发展研究中心-黄建忠工作室研究成果(项目编号:2020-GR-07)资助
通过利用高频的双边服务贸易数据,本文对“新冠肺炎疫情”冲击对我国服务贸易的影响进行了分析,主要结论如下:(1)“新冠肺炎疫情”不仅在短期内对我国服务贸易产生直接的负面冲击,长期还将通过各国产业政策的调整影响到我国服务贸易与全球价值链。 (2) 疫情对中国服务贸易的冲击要比货物贸易更为严重,而且对传统服务贸易的冲击最为明显,而知识密集型服务贸易由于具备抗危机性特征,因而受疫情影响相对较小,但无法抵消传统服务贸易的下降趋势;短期内疫情对商业存在模式下的服务贸易 (FATS) 同样构成不利因素,但长期并不会影响中国对外资服务企业开展业务的吸引力;疫情在短期内对中国服务外包造成冲击,而且离岸业务受冲击程度要大于在岸业务。(3) 疫情对日本出口中国的旅游和运输服务产生的负面冲击较大,但中日双边也出现了逆势增长的服务贸易部门,疫情爆发后日本更倾向于对欧洲进行服务出口,同时试图通过以进口来源地的分散化以实现“产业链安全”目标。(4) 中美双边服务贸易规模下降程度尤为严重,而且美国明显增强了与新加坡、日本、英国、沙特阿拉伯的服务贸易联系,意欲用其他国家来取代与中国原有的服务贸易联系。
By using monthly and quarterly bilateral flow data on service trade, we analysis the influence of Covid-19 on China’s trade in service, the conclusions are as follows: (1) The epidemic not only cause a direct shock in short time, but also produce an indirect effect on China’s service trade by adjusting industry policy of other countries. (2) More serious shock can be seen on service trade than commodity trade; comparing with traditional service trade, with resilience characteristic, knowledge-intensive trade service is affected not so serious. The epidemic also constitutes a negative shock on Foreign Affiliated Trade in Service (FATS) in the short time, but China is still an attractive destination for foreign firms to conduct business. The epidemic will have an impact on China's service outsourcing in the short term, and the impact of offshore business is greater than that of onshore business. (3) The epidemic has a great negative impact on Japan's export to China on tourism and transportation services. However, bilateral service trade between China and Japan also have growing sector. In addition, after the outbreak of the epidemic, Japan tends to export services to Europe, and tries to achieve the goal of "industrial chain security" through the decentralization of import sources. (4) The scale of bilateral service trade between China and the United States has declined particularly seriously, Moreover, the United States has significantly strengthened its service trade ties with Singapore, Japan, United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia, In the future, the original service trade relationship between the United States and China may be replaced by other countries.
蒙英华.“新冠肺炎疫情”冲击对我国服务贸易的影响研究*[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2021,(3):60-72.
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