李惠:中共天津市委党校经济学院副教授,博士。研究方向:产业经济与贸易经济。
F740/F114.1
国家社会科学基金一般项目“京津冀区域循环产业协同创新研究”(项目编号:18BJY059)资助
本文基于中国国产中间品使用比率逐渐提高的背景,放弃不同国家中间品之间存在固定或者单一替代弹性这一传统假定,基于 WIOD 数据库计算 2001~2014 年间中国各部门中间品的进口替代弹性及其变化,并就中间品进口替代弹性和生产国内循环对中国国际分工地位的影响展开实证分析。研究发现,近年中国主要进出口行业国产中间品进口替代弹性趋于提高,推动了生产的国内循环。各部门中间品进口替代弹性在整体上促进了中国在 2001~2014 年间出口的国内增加值含量和国际分工地位提升,而作为间接作用渠道, 中间品在国内生产网络中的“前向关联效应”和“后向关联效应”分别促进和抑制了中国出口国内增加值含量的提升,但中间品进口替代弹性通过与国内生产网络关联效应交互作用影响国际分工地位的证据仅在部分结果中得到体现。本文对于客观认识中国国际分工地位提供了一个新视角,也体现了通过加强研发创新提升国产中间品的进口替代能力和整合国内价值链以提升国际分工地位的政策含义。
Based on the background of the increasing use ratio of China’s domestic intermediate goods, this paper abandons the traditional assumption that there is fixed or unitary substitution elasticity among intermediate goods in different countries, calculates the import substitution elasticity and its changes of intermediate goods in various departments of China from 2001 to 2014 based on WIOD database, and makes an empirical analysis on the impact of import substitution elasticity and domestic production cycle of intermediate goods on China’s international division of labor status. It is found that in recent years, the import substitution elasticity of domestic intermediate goods in China’s main import and export industries tends to increase, which promotes the domestic cycle of production. The elasticity of import substitution of intermediate goods in various departments has promoted the domestic value-added content and international division of labor status of China’s exports from 2001 to 2014 as a whole, while as an indirect channel, the “forward linkage effect” and “backward linkage effect” of intermediate goods in the domestic production network promote and restrain the increase of the domestic value-added content of China’s exports, respectively. However, the evidence that the elasticity of import substitution of intermediate goods affects the status of international division of labor through the interaction with the correlation effect of domestic production network is only reflected in some of the results. This paper provides a new perspective for the objective understanding of China’s international division of labor status, and its conclusions also have important policy implications.
李惠.中间品替代弹性、生产国内循环与中国国际分工地位*[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2022,(5):38-51.
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