吴宏:浙江财经大学经济学院教授,硕士生导师,经济学博士。研究方向:全球价值链与中美贸易。
F272.3
国家社科基金重大项目“全球产业链重构对全球经济治理体系的影响及中国应对研究”(项目编号:21&ZD074);国家自然科学基金面上项目“‘一带一路’建设的福利效应估算”(项目编号:71773141)的资助
自上海自由贸易试验区设立以来,在扩大贸易开放的同时,也面临着一定的环境污染问题。本文基于 2007 ~ 2017 年 180 个城市的面板数据,运用多时点双重差分法(DID) 检验了各城市自贸区设立的环境效应。实证结果表明:(1)自贸区建设发挥了显著的碳减排作用,较自贸区设立以前,设立后平均能够降低 7.2% 的碳排放增长率,且这一效应在叠加政策考察、反事实检验、控制金融危机影响、PSM-DID 等一系列稳健性检验下依然成立;(2)通过中介效应发现,自贸区设立通过规模效应、结构升级效应、资源配置效应和绿色技术创新效应的综合作用使碳排放增长得到有效缓解, 且四种效应对环境均产生了正面影响;(3)基于区域异质性,本文发现在沿海地区尤其是珠三角地区设立自贸区片区能够显著减缓碳排放增长,而在长三角地区设立自贸区片区虽然同样减缓了碳排放增长,但未能通过显著性检验,对于内陆地区而言, 自贸区片区建立对碳排放增长率的抑制作用并不明显;(4)常住人口规模达到 500 万的城市对碳排放能够产生显著的抑制作用,但对于常住人口不足 500 万的城市而言并不显著。因此,在自贸区发展中,应该充分发挥规模效应、结构升级效应、资源配置效应以及绿色技术创新效应,同时要因地制宜地推动自贸区经济效益与环境效益协同发展。
Since the establishment of China's Pilot Free Trade Zone, it has faced certain environmental pollution problems while expanding trade openness. Based on the panel data of 180 cities from 2007 to 2017, this paper uses the multi time point double difference method (DID) to test the environmental effects of the establishment of free trade zones in each city. The empirical results show that: (1)The construction of the free trade zone has played a significant role in carbon emission reduction, which can reduce the growth rate of carbon emissions by 2.0% compared with that before the establishment of the free trade zone, and this effect is still valid under a series of robustness tests such as superimposed policy review, counterfactual test, excluding the impact of the financial crisis, PSM-DID, etc.; (2) Through the intermediary effect, it is found that the establishment of the free trade zone has effectively mitigated the growth of carbon emissions through the combined effects of scale effect, structure upgrading effect, resource allocation effect and green technology innovation effect, and the four effects have a positive impact on the environment; (3) Based on the regional heterogeneity, this paper finds that the establishment of pilot free trade zones in coastal areas, especially in the Pearl River Delta, can significantly slow down the growth of carbon emissions, while the establishment of free trade zones in the Yangtze River Delta has also slowed down the growth of carbon emissions, but failed to pass the significance test. For inland areas, the inhibition of the establishment of free trade zones on the growth rate of carbon emissions is not obvious; (4) Cities with a permanent population of 5million can significantly inhibit carbon emissions, but it is not significant for cities with a permanent population of less than 5million.
吴宏.自由贸易试验区与碳减排——基于180个城市面板数据的实证研究*[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2022,(5):89-107.
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