周玲玲:中国地质大学(北京)经济管理学院讲师,经济学博士。研究方向:数字经济、全球价值链、投入产出模型及可计算一般均衡模型
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本文受国家社会科学基金青年项目“新发展格局下数字经济驱动市场整合的机制与对策研究”(项目编号:22CJY065)、中国博士后科学基金面上项目“新发展格局下中国区域数字价值链的测度框架与影响机制研究”(项目编号:2021M701959)、国家自然科学基金重点项目“全球价值链视角下的国内区域分工与市场一体化研究”(项目编号:71733003)资助
本文基于 2012 年与 2017 年中国省际间非竞争型投入产出表,扩展了传统的三驾马车核算方法,从最终需求视角将国民经济循环划分为“国内本地循环”“国内省际循环”“国内国际循环”及“国际循环”四大环节,依此测度我国国内大循环与国际循环的程度。 研究发现:从区域层面看,相比于 2012 年,2017 年各区域“国内本地循环”程度都有所增强;从省级层面看,国内大循环参与程度较深的省份主要集中于中西部;从行业层面看, 大部分技术密集型、劳动密集型行业参与“国际循环”程度相对较深。本文的研究方法为定量分析国内大循环与国际循环提供了测算基础,为从全国层面、省级层面与行业层面有效推进新发展格局提供了参考依据。
From the perspective of final demand, this paper uses the inter-provincial non-competitive inputoutput tables in China in 2012 and 2017, expands the traditional accounting method, and divides the national economic cycle into “domestic and local the four links of domestic and inter-provincial circulation”, “domestic and international circulation” and “international circulation” measure the degree of domestic and international circulation, and discuss the basic characteristics of China’s participation in domestic and international circulation. The main research findings are: (1) At the regional level, different regions in China showed the strongest degree of “domestic local circulation” in 2012 and 2017. Compared with 2012, the degree of “domestic local circulation” in China in 2017 increased, The degree of “international circulation” has decreased, but this does not mean that a new development pattern has been formed; (2) At the provincial level, the degree of participation in dual circulation in different provinces in China is signifi cantly different, and the degree of “domestic local circulation” is relatively different in different provinces. The highest degree of “international circulation” is relatively low. Provinces with a high degree of “domestic local circulation” are mainly concentrated in the central and western regions; (3) At the sectoral level, consistent with the research results at the regional and provincial levels, different industry sectors still use the “domestic local circulation”. Most of the technology-intensive and labor-intensive industries participate in the “international cycle” relatively deeply. Therefore, China should continue to strengthen the development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body, and the key is to open up the pain points and blocking points of the domestic market, focus on expanding the domestic market demand, and take advantages of China’s super-large domestic market.
周玲玲.新发展格局下国内大循环与国际循环测度研究*[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2023,(2):36-47.
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