郭海生:上海社会科学院经济学博士研究生,奇瑞汽车股份有限公司主管工程师。研究方向:人口发展与产业经济。
F719/F120
生产性服务业是赋能高质量发展的重要推手,在人口老龄化背景下,如何推动生产性服务业集聚发展是迈向高质量发展阶段的我国目前要解决的重要课题。本文在分析人口老龄化对生产性服务业空间集聚影响机制的基础上,采用 2003~2019 年我国分省份的面板数据,实证分析人口老龄化对生产性服务业空间集聚的影响。结论认为:人口老龄化对生产性服务业的空间集聚产生促进作用。人口老龄化主要通过人力资本累积效应和信息传播效应,增加了企业间的知识溢出水平,从而增强了生产性服务业的空间集聚。人口老龄化主要通过减少劳动力的供给水平,降低劳动力和企业的匹配机会和质量, 对生产性服务业的空间集聚产生负面影响。总的来看人口老龄化对生产性服务业空间集聚的净效应为正。因此,政府应该顺应人口老龄化的趋势,以市场为导向,促使生产性服务业的集聚发展,同时也要加强政策引导,规避人口老龄化带来的负面影响。
The producer services is an important driving force for empowering high-quality development. In the context of population aging, how to promote the agglomeration development of producer services is an important issue that China needs to solve in the stage of high-quality development. Based on the analysis of the impact mechanism of population aging on the spatial agglomeration of producer services, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of population aging on the spatial agglomeration of producer services using the panel data of China’s provinces from 2003 to 2019. The conclusion shows that the aging population in each province has promoted the spatial agglomeration of producer services between cities within the province. The population aging mainly increases the level of knowledge spillover between enterprises through human capital effect and information dissemination effect, thereby enhancing the spatial agglomeration of producer services, and mainly has a negative impact on the spatial agglomeration of producer services by reducing the supply level of labor and reducing the matching opportunities and quality between labor and enterprises. Overall, the net effect of population aging on spatial agglomeration of producer services is positive. Therefore, the government should comply with the trend of population aging, adhere to the market-oriented principle to promote the agglomeration development of producer services. At the same time, it should also strengthen policy guidance to avoid the negative impact of population aging through labor supply effect.
郭海生,窦大鹏,匡增杰.人口老龄化对生产性服务业空间集聚的影响研究[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2023,(5):33-47.
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