王飞:喀什大学经济与管理学院讲师,南开大学经济学院博士研究生。研究方向:区域经济学。
F125/F742
本文受国家民委“一带一路”国别和区域研究中心“中巴经济走廊研究中心”高质量发展课题“中巴数字经济与实体经济深度融合发展研究”(项目编号:ZBJJZL2023B06);2023年度自治区高校基本科研业务费科研项目“推动新疆数字经济高质量发展的机理与对策研究”(项目编号:XJEDU2023P110);山东援疆指挥部横向经费支持项目“双碳意愿下数字化转型驱动企业低碳转型的机制研究”(项目编号:010203)的资助
新发展格局下,“一带一路”倡议成为提升中国制造业出口竞争力的重要推动力。本文基于“一带一路”倡议的准自然实验,匹配多个数据库收集了 192 个国家 2009~2021 年的面板数据,利用多期双重差分法模型和中介效应模型检验“一带一路”倡议对中国制造业出口竞争力的影响。结果表明:“一带一路”倡议显著提升了中国制造业出口竞争力, 该结果通过了多重稳健性检验。在影响机制方面,“一带一路”倡议对中国制造业出口竞争力提升效应主要通过政策沟通、资金融通、设施联通和贸易畅通机制促进,且其对总效应贡献率分别达到 55.435%、24.793%、8.664% 和 7.452%,民心相通机制暂未发挥应有作用。异质性分析发现,就区域而言,“一带一路”倡议对中国制造业出口竞争力的提升效应更明显地表现为面向“一带一路”沿线国家和政治稳定安全的国家;就产品而言, 相较于资本密集型制造业产品,劳动密集型产品的提升效果更明显。
Under the new development pattern, the “Belt and Road” initiative has become an important driving force to enhance the export competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry. Therefore, based on the quasi natural experiment of the “Belt and Road” initiative, this study matched multiple databases to collect panel data from 192 countries from 2009 to 2021, and tested the impact of the “Belt and Road” initiative on China’s manufacturing export competitiveness using the multi period double difference model and the intermediary effect model. The results show that: (a) The “Belt and Road” initiative has signifi cantly improved the export competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry, and this result has passed multiple robustness tests. (b) In terms of impact mechanism, the effect of the “Belt and Road” initiative on improving China’s manufacturing export competitiveness is mainly promoted through policy communication, financial intermediation, facility connectivity and unimpeded trade mechanism, and its contribution rate to the total effect has reached 55.435%, 24.793%, 8.664% and 7.452% respectively. The mechanism of people to people connection has not yet played its due role. (c) The heterogeneity analysis fi nds that, in terms of regions, the promotion effect of the “Belt and Road” initiative on China’s manufacturing export competitiveness is more obvious for countries along the “Belt and Road” and countries with political stability and security; Compared to capital intensive manufacturing products, labor-intensive products have a more signifi cant improvement effect on products.
王飞,陈瑞华.“一带一路”倡议与中国制造业出口竞争力提升——基于“五通”机制的分析* [J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2024,(1):23-35.
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