1.贵州大学西部现代化研究院,贵阳 550025 ;2.重庆大学公共管理学院,重庆 400030 ;3.贵州大学经济学院,贵阳 550025
周恩宇:贵州大学西部现代化研究院副教授,硕士生导师,管理学博士。研究方向:区域经济。
肖秋香:贵州大学经济学院硕士研究生。研究方向:产业经济。
本文受2021年度贵州省哲学社会科学规划项目“贵州易地扶贫搬迁社区社会稳定风险与治理机制研究”(项目编号:21GZZD43)的资助
1.Institute of Western Modernization, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025 , China ; 2.School of Public Administration,Chongqing University, Chongqing 400030 , China ; 3.School of Economics, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025 , China
评价我国新质生产力发展水平,探析区域差异与时空特征,并对驱动因素进行识别, 对实现我国新质生产力因地制宜发展有着重要现实意义。本文基于 2012~2022 年中国 30 个省级面板数据,从生产力技术化、绿色化、数字化维度出发构建评价指标体系, 并运用熵值法、Dagum 基尼系数及分解法、标准差椭圆、地理探测器分析我国新质生产力发展水平的区域差异、时空演进及驱动因素。研究发现:(1)从发展水平来看,我国新质生产力总体发展水平呈缓慢上升趋势,区域发展上呈现出东部 > 中部 > 东北 > 西部的发展格局。(2)从区域差异来看,我国新质生产力发展水平的总体差异在缓慢扩大,区域间差异是造成总体差异的主要来源。(3)从时空演进来看, 我国新质生产力的多极化现象正在逐渐减少,空间分布呈现出总体向外扩张的特征, 空间集聚态势有所减弱,重心迁移上呈现出向东南方向移动的趋势。(4)从驱动因素识别来看,政府支持力度、地区经济发展水平、居民数字化服务消费水平的影响力度强于其他驱动因子,且地区经济发展水平和政府支持力度、其他因子的交互影响是推动我国新质生产力发展的关键。
Evaluating the development level of China’s new quality productivity, exploring regional diff erences and spatial and temporal characteristics, and identifying the driving factors are of great practical signifi cance for realizing the development of China’s new quality productivity according to local conditions. Based on the panel data of 30 provincial-level regions in China from 2012 to 2022, this paper constructs an evaluation index system from the dimensions of the three dimensions of productivity: technologization, greening, and digitization, and applies the entropy method, the Dagum Gini coeffi cient and decomposition, the standard deviation ellipse, and the geographic detector to analyze the regional differences in the level of development of China’s newquality productivity, the dynamic evolution of its distribution, and the identifi cation of its driving factors. The study found that: (1) From the point of view of development level, the overall development level of China’s new quality productivity is on a slow upward trend, and the regional development shows the development pattern of East>Central>Northeast>West. (2) From the point of view of regional diff erences, the overall diff erence in the development level of China’s new quality productivity is slowly expanding, and inter-regional diff erences are the main source of the overall differences. (3) In terms of spatial and temporal evolution, the multipolarization of China’s new quality productivity is gradually decreasing, the spatial distribution shows a general outward expansion, the spatial agglomeration trend has weakened, and the migration of the center of gravity shows a tendency to move toward the southeast. (4) From the identifi cation of driving factors, the infl uence of government support, regional economic development level, and residents’ consumption level of digital services is stronger than that of other driving factors, and the interaction between the regional economic development level and government support and other factors is the key to promoting the development of China’s new quality productivity.
周恩宇,赵浪,肖秋香.我国新质生产力发展的区域差异、时空演进及驱动因素识别[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2025,(5):41-58.
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