1.喀什大学经济与管理学院,新疆喀什 844004 ;2.南开大学经济学院,天津 300071 ;3.伊犁师范大学一带一路发展研究院,新疆伊犁 835000
韩晓媛:喀什大学经济与管理学院讲师。研究方向:区域经济。
李月:南开大学经济学院教授,博士生导师,经济学博士。研究方向:区域经济。
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本文受伊犁师范大学一带一路发展研究中心开放课题 “ 一带一路背景下数字经济发展研究 ” ( 项目编号 :YDYL2023YB046)、2024年党的二十届三中全会和全国教育大会精神研究课题“新疆促进实体经济与数字经济深度融合的机制路径研究”(项目编号:(2024)12045)的资助
1.School of Economics and Management, Kashgar University, Kashgar 844004 , Xinjiang, China ; 2.School of Economics, NankaiUniversity, Tianjin 300071 , China ; 3.The Belt and Road Development Research Institute of Yili Normal University, Yili 835000 ,Xinjiang, China
本文基于 2009~2023 年中国对 133 个经济体的数字服务出口数据,采用泊松伪极大似然估计法考察 RTA 数字贸易规则对中国数字服务贸易出口的影响效应。结果表明:第一, RTA 数字贸易规则能够产生贸易创造效应,同时释放“延伸引力”效应,对中国数字服务贸易出口存在显著正向效应。第二,机制检验表明 RTA 数字贸易规则能够通过降低贸易成本产生贸易创造效应,通过改善数字贸易监管环境释放“延伸引力”效应,进而促进中国数字服务贸易出口。第三,异质性检验表明,“延伸引力”效应主要受非歧视性条款内容的影响;对于高收入经济体,RTA 数字贸易规则对中国数字服务贸易出口的贸易创造效应和“延伸引力”效应均显著为正,对于非高收入经济体仍然具有显著的贸易创造效应,但是“延伸引力”效应并不显著;RTA 数字贸易规则的贸易创造效应和“延伸引力”效应在知识产权使用费用、电信计算机和信息服务、其他商业服务三个部门表现更明显。
Based on the data of China’s digital service exports to 133 economies from 2009 to 2023, this article uses Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation method to examine the impact of RTA digital trade rules on China’s digital service trade exports. The results indicate that fi rstly, RTA digital trade rules can generate trade creation eff ects and release the “extended gravity” eff ect, which has a signifi cant positive eff ect on China’s digital service trade exports. Secondly, mechanism testing shows that RTA digital trade rules can generate trade creation eff ects by reducing trade costs, and release the “extended gravity” eff ect by improving the digital trade regulatory environment, thereby promoting China’s digital service trade exports. Thirdly, heterogeneity tests indicate that the “extended gravity” eff ect is mainly infl uenced by the content of non-discriminatory clauses; For high-income economies, the RTA digital trade rules have a signifi cant positive trade creation eff ect and “extended gravity” effect on China’s digital service trade exports. For non-high-income economies, they still have a signifi cant trade creation eff ect, but the “extended gravity” eff ect is not signifi cant; The trade creation eff ect and “extended gravity” eff ect of RTA digital trade rules are more evident in three sectors: intellectual property usage fees, telecommunications, computer and information services, and other commercial services.
韩晓媛,王飞,李月. RTA数字贸易规则对中国数字服务贸易出口的影响效应研究[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2025,(5):106-124.
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