1.南开大学 APEC 研究中心,天津 300071 ;2.南开大学经济学院国际经济研究所,天津 300071
许家云(通信作者):南开大学APEC研究中心教授,博士生导师。研究方向:国际经济学。
F752.62
本文受国家自然科学基金面上项目“中美贸易摩擦、创新布局与国际循环质量:影响、机制及应对策略”(项目编号:72573087)、国家社会科学基金重大项目“新发展格局下提升我国国际循环质量和水平的机制与路径研究”(项目编号:24VRC059)的资助
1.APEC Study Center, Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071 , China ; 2.Institute for International Economics, Nankai University,Tianjin, 300071 , China
在全球经济波动与贸易格局重塑背景下,增强企业出口稳定性成为保障国际贸易持续发展和提升企业国际竞争力的关键,对实现中国外贸高质量发展至关重要。本文基于 2007~2016 年中国海关与上市企业数据库,从供给侧和需求侧双重视角考察数字技术对企业出口稳定性的影响及作用机制。研究结果表明,数字技术能够从出口韧性和出口关系稳定性两方面显著提升企业出口稳定性。在供给侧, 数字技术通过中间品供应本土化、创新驱动效应增强企业出口稳定性;在需求侧,通过出口市场多元化、外部需求不确定性缓解效应提升企业出口稳定性。异质性分析显示,数字技术对企业出口稳定性的影响因企业所有制、贸易方式、目的国发展水平和出口产品类型的不同而存在显著差异。进一步分析发现,产业链协同效率在数字技术增强企业出口稳定性过程中发挥正向调节作用。研究结论为推进企业数字技术应用、实现对外贸易稳中提质提供了重要参考依据。
Amid global economic fl uctuations and ongoing restructuring of trade patterns, strengthening fi rms’ export stability has become crucial for sustaining international trade development and improving firms’ international competitiveness, and is essential for achieving high-quality development of China’s foreign trade. Based on matched data from the Chinese Customs Database and listed fi rms from 2007 to 2016, this study examines the impact of digital technology on fi rms’ export stability and its underlying mechanisms from both supply-and demand-side perspectives. The results indicate that the application of digital technology signifi cantly enhances fi rms’ export stability through two key dimensions: export resilience and export relationship stability. On the supply side, digital technology strengthens export stability by promoting localization of intermediate inputs and fostering innovation-driven growth. On the demand side, it enhances stability through export market diversifi cation and mitigating uncertainties in external demand. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the eff ects of digital technology vary signifi cantly depending on fi rm ownership, trade mode, destination country development level, and product type. Further analysis shows that industrial chain coordination plays a positive moderating role in the process through which digital technology enhances export stability. These fi ndings provide important insights for promoting the adoption of digital technologies and fostering steady, high-quality growth in foreign trade.
许家云,王紫棉.数字技术与企业出口稳定性——基于供给侧和需求侧视角[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2026,33(3):5-21.
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