中南财经政法大学经济学院,武汉 430073
袁凯华:中南财经政法大学经济学院教授,博士生导师。研究方向:全球价值链与中国制造业转型升级。
刘梦晴:中南财经政法大学经济学院硕士研究生。研究方向:中国制造业服务化转型。
F740
本文受国家社会科学基金青年项目“贸易成本扭曲视角下中国先进制造业的服务化转型困境与对策研究”(项目编号:20CJL026)的资助
Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073 , China
在全球经济不确定性加剧、贸易保护主义抬头以及技术封锁风险增大的背景下,如何提升产业出口韧性成为各国应对外部冲击和提升经济高质量发展的重要课题。本文基于最新的 OECD-ICIO(2023)数据测算分析先进制造业服务化与出口韧性的演进动态, 探讨其服务化转型对产业出口韧性的作用效果与机制路径。结果表明,由于服务投入国别来源的限制,先进制造业服务化转型并不必然提升出口韧性,只有根植本土的国内服务化转型才能促进韧性提升。进一步机制分析发现,先进制造业国内服务化能够通过进口多元化效应与国内价值链延长效应促进出口韧性提升,并且在进口能力更强的 OECD 成员经济体与内部整合能力更高的样本中发挥的积极作用更加明显。因此, 在先进制造业服务化转型进程中,既要立足超大国内市场,又要结合价值链序贯生产特点,稳步有序地助力出口“稳中有韧”目标的实现。
Amid rising global economic uncertainty, escalating trade protectionism, and increasing risks of technological blockades, enhancing industrial export resilience has become a critical issue for countries seeking to mitigate external shocks and promote high-quality economic development. This study employs the latest OECD-ICIO (2023) data to measure and analyze the evolutionary dynamics between advanced servitization transformation and export resilience. Specifi cally, it examines advanced servitization transformation eff ects and underlying mechanisms on export resilience. The results indicate that advanced manufacturing servitization transformation does not necessarily enhance export resilience due to the heterogeneous sources of service inputs, as only domestically rooted servitization can contribute to improved resilience. Further mechanism analysis reveals that the domestic serviceization of advanced manufacturing can enhance export resilience through the eff ects of import diversifi cation and the extension of the domestic value chain. Moreover, in OECD member economies with stronger import capabilities and in samples with higher internal integration capabilities, the impact of domestic serviceization on export resilience is more pronounced. Therefore, in the process of advanced manufacturing servitization transformation, it is crucial to leverage the advantages of a large domestic market while aligning with value chain extension characteristics to steadily and systematically achieve the objective of export resilience.
袁凯华,刘梦晴,崔京源.先进制造业服务化转型能否提升出口韧性?——来自跨国层面的经验证据[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2025,(5):5-23.
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