青岛理工大学商学院,山东青岛 266520
张凤:青岛理工大学商学院副教授,硕士生导师。研究方向:企业数智化转型、制度型开放、贸易便利化、金融发展。
段淑萍:青岛理工大学商学院硕士生。研究方向:数字经济、资本市场一体化、出口产品质量。
杨丛鑫:青岛理工大学商学院硕士生。研究方向:数字化、供应链韧性、危机事件冲击
F74
本文受山东省自然科学基金“贸易便利化和产业集聚双重环境下中国出口质量提升的机制和路径研究”(项目编号:ZR2023MG060)、山东省重点研发计划(软科学项目)“山东省产业大脑建设策略研究”(项目编号:2024RZB0202)和江苏教育厅哲社研究重大项目“产业有序转移促进国家价值链优化与韧性提升的机制与路径研究”(项目编号:2023SJZD053)的共同资助
Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266520 , Shandong, China
当前,中国老龄化趋势严峻,以往以“低价优势”参与国际竞争的出口模式难以为继。劳动力市场一体化是全国统一大市场建设的重要部分,其所带来的省际间劳动力流动能否推动出口产品质量升级,是关乎中国出口高质量发展的重要问题。本文在理论分析基础上,结合 2017~2022 年制造业 HS8 位数出口数据,利用三维固定效应模型考察了劳动力市场一体化对出口产品质量的影响及内在路径, 并进一步探讨美国对华加征关税背景下,劳动力市场一体化对出口产品质量影响的调节效应。研究发现,劳动力市场一体化对出口产品质量呈正“U”型影响,且经稳健及内生性检验后,结论仍成立。 异质性分析表明,劳动力市场一体化对东部地区、一般贸易及中收入和高收入国家出口产品质量存在正“U”型影响,但对中部地区存在倒“U”型影响。机制分析表明,技术创新、市场竞争以及用工成本是重要影响路径。另外,劳动力市场一体化在老龄化影响出口产品质量中发挥负向调节作用且能有效缓解美国关税加征对中国出口产品质量的负面冲击。上述结论对缓解老龄化和美国对华加征关税政策的负面效应,推动劳动力市场一体化建设及促进中国出口高质量发展具有重要参考价值。
Currently, China is confronting a profound aging population crisis, leading to the gradual erosion of its demographic dividend. The traditional export paradigm, which depended on “low-cost advantages” to compete internationally, has become increasingly unsustainable. Labor market integration is an important component of the construction of a unifi ed national market. Whether the interprovincial labor mobility brought about by labor market integration can promote the upgrading of export product quality and enhance international competitiveness is an important issue concerning the high-quality development of China’s exports. Grounded in theoretical analysis, this study utilizes HS 8-digit export data for the manufacturing sector from 2017 to 2022 and employs a three-dimensional fi xed eff ects model to examine the impact and underlying mechanisms of labor market integration on export product quality amid an aging population. Additionally, it explores the moderating role of labor market integration on export quality in the context of the United States imposing additional tariff s on China. The results demonstrate that labor market integration has a positive “U” shaped eff ect on export product quality, a fi nding that remains robust after rigorous robustness and endogeneity tests. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that this positive “U” -shaped relationship is observed in eastern regions, general trade, and middle-income and high-income countries, whereas an inverted “U” shaped eff ect is identifi ed in central regions. Mechanism analysis reveals that technological innovation, market competition, and labor costs are key factors. Furthermore, labor market integration exerts a mitigating infl uence on the adverse eff ects of aging on export product quality and eff ectively alleviates the negative impact of U.S. tariff hikes on the quality of Chinese exports. The aforementioned conclusions hold profound signifi cance for mitigating the adverse impacts of aging and U.S. tariff policies on China, fostering labor market integration, and advancing the high-quality development of Chinese exports.
张凤,张娇,段淑萍,杨丛鑫.劳动力市场一体化、省际间劳动力流动与中国出口高质量发展[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2026,33(1):50-67.
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