机械工业出版社泰安编校中心,山东泰安 271025
谭学想:机械工业出版社泰安编校中心编辑。研究方向:首发经济。
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本文受山东省社会科学规划研究项目“数智化赋能山东新质生产力发展研究:内在机理、现实障碍与实践路径”(项目编号:24CCXJ13)的资助
Tai’an Editing and Proofreading Center, China Machine Press, Tai’an 271025 , Shandong, China
首发经济为破解消费升级瓶颈、激活市场活力提供了重要路径。本文结合创新扩散理论,运用熵值法、 Jenks 自然间断点分级、Dagum 基尼系数分解、Markov 链分析 2005~2024 年中国首发经济的时空格局, 并通过地理探测器探析首发经济的驱动机制。研究发现:中国首发经济发展水平总体呈上升趋势; 首展经济发展水平高于首店经济、首秀经济;首发企业创新发展水平高于首发产业升级、首发市场拓展;城市发展水平呈现集聚效应、增量提质、向二三线城市扩散以及上海、杭州始终领先的特征; 中国首发经济区域差异显著但有所减小,区域间差异是区域差异的最主要来源;中国首发经济能够稳定维持原有状态,存在跨状态转移,且具有空间外溢效应;首发产品专利质量、首发产品品牌价值、 首发产品研发效率是首发经济的主要驱动因子,且两两驱动因子之间交互作用的影响要大于单一因子。
The debut economic launch provides an important path for breaking through the bottleneck of consumption upgrading and activating market vitality. This paper combines the theory of innovation diffusion, uses entropy method, Jenks natural discontinuity classifi cation, Dagum Gini coeffi cient decomposition, Markov chain analysis to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of China’s debut economy from 2005 to 2024, and explores the driving mechanism of the debut economy through geographic detectors. Research has found that the overall development level of China’s debut economy is on the rise, with the debut exhibition economy having a higher level of development than the debut store economy and debut show economy. The development level of debut enterprises innovation is higher than that of debut industry upgrading and debut market expansion. The urban development level shows characteristics of agglomeration eff ect, incremental quality improvement, diff usion to second and third tier cities, and Shanghai and Hangzhou always leading. The regional diff erences in China’s debut economy are signifi cant but have decreased, with inter regional diff erences being the main source of regional diff erences. China’s debut economy can maintain its original state stably, with cross state transitions and spatial spillover eff ects. The patent quality, brand value, and R&D effi ciency of the debut product are the main driving factors of the debut economy, and the interaction eff ect between the two driving factors is greater than that of a single factor.
谭学想.中国首发经济的时空格局与驱动机制研究[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2026,33(1):68-81.
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