1.浙江大学中国数字贸易研究院, 杭州 310058 ; 2.对外经济贸易大学中国世界贸易组织研究院, 北京 100029
马述忠:浙江大学中国数字贸易研究院教授,博士生导师,管理学博士。研究方向:数字贸易。
吴璐桐:浙江大学中国数字贸易研究院硕士研究生。研究方向:数字贸易。
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本文受国家社会科学基金重大项目“数字贸易壁垒对中国对外贸易高质量发展的影响及对策研究”(项目编号:23&ZD084)资助
1. China Digital Trade Institute, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058 , China ; 2. China Institute for WTO Studies, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029 , China
在全球贸易保护主义抬头和科技发展战略价值凸显的背景下,研究数字贸易壁垒对中国高科技产品出口的影响具有重要的现实意义。本文基于2014~2023年目的国—年份—产品层面的面板数据集,实证检验了数字贸易壁垒对中国高科技产品出口的影响及潜在作用渠道。结果表明:数字贸易壁垒显著抑制中国高科技产品的出口,且这一负面效应在市场规模较小、数字基础设施薄弱、中国初始贸易额较高和中国初始投资额较低的目的国和低附加值、中间品与资本品、高技能与高数字密集度的产品中更为突出。机制分析表明,数字贸易壁垒主要通过增加跨境交易成本和提高市场经营不确定性等路径发挥影响。本文为破解数字贸易壁垒、促进高科技产品出口与推动对外贸易高质量发展提供经验证据和政策启示。
Against the backdrop of surging global trade protectionism and the increasing strategic prominence of technological development, investigating the impact of digital trade barriers on China's high-tech product exports holds significant practical implications. Based on a destination-year-product level panel dataset spanning from 2014 to 2023, this paper empirically examines the impact of digital trade barriers on China's high-tech product exports and their potential transmission mechanisms. The results indicate that digital trade barriers significantly inhibit China's high-tech product exports; notably, this negative effect is more pronounced in destination countries with smaller market sizes, weaker digital infrastructure, and higher initial trade volumes with China, and lower initial levels of Chinese investment, as well as for low value-added products, intermediate and capital goods, and products characterized by high skill and high digital intensity. Mechanism analysis reveals that digital trade barriers primarily exert their influence by increasing cross-border transaction costs and heightening market operational uncertainty. Ultimately, this study provides empirical evidence and policy implications for overcoming digital trade barriers, fostering high-tech product exports, and promoting high-quality trade development.
马述忠,吴璐桐,刘锴.数字贸易壁垒对中国高科技产品出口的影响[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2026,33(5):5-18.
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