1.上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院,上海 201620 ;2.河北科技师范学院工商管理学院,河北秦皇岛 066004 ;3.德邦证券股份有限公司,上海 200082
初立苹:上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院副教授,硕士生导师,经济学博士。研究方向:社会保险与养老金融。
高静:河北科技师范学院工商管理学院副教授,硕士生导师,经济学博士。研究方向:空间计量与数据分析。
武晓春:德邦证券股份有限公司总经理,经济学博士。研究方向:证券投资与产业发展。
F202
本文受国家社会科学基金一般项目“社保征缴政策影响企业生产要素配置的机制与效应研究”(项目编号:25BJY079)资助
1. School of Finance, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, Shanghai 201620 , China ; 2. School of Management, Hebei Normal University of Science and Technology, Qinhuangdao 066004 , Hebei, China ; 3. Debang Securities Limited Liability Company, Shanghai 200082 , China
经济发展带动在岗职工平均工资持续增长,由此促成的社保缴费基数调整既反映区域经济发展的积极成果,又预示未来产业升级和民生改善的发展方向。本文基于2006~2022年我国省级面板数据,利用经济地理距离作为空间权重矩阵,采用考虑个体和时间固定效应的极大似然法估计社保缴费基数下限上调对产业结构高级化和协调化的本地效应和空间效应。研究发现:(1)产业结构高级化和协调化存在显著的正向相关性;(2)本省社保缴费基数下限上调速度和上调负担均对本省产业结构高级化形成正向溢出效应,而本省社保缴费基数下限上调负担则对本省产业结构协调化产生负向溢出效应,但是其他省社保缴费基数下限上调速度和上调负担通过“吸虹效应”阻碍本省产业结构高级化;(3)要素投入调整和劳动力流动都会促进周边省社保缴费基数下限上调速度加快所带来的产业结构高级化,但未能对产业结构协调化产生显著影响。为此,应实施促进社保缴费基数下限上调与要素投入调整、劳动力流动相耦合的政策,积极发挥空间溢出效应,提升地区要素配置效率和发展新质生产力,促进产业结构升级。
With the development of China's economy, the average salary of employees on duty has shown a trend of increasing year by year, which has driven the growth of the upper and lower limits of the social insurance payment base and reflected the past achievements and future direction of the local macroeconomy. Using inter provincial panel data from 2006 to 2022 in China, economic geographic distance is used as the spatial weight matrix, and the maximum likelihood method considering individual and time fixed effects is adopted to estimate the local and spatial effects of raising the lower limit of social insurance payment base on the upgrading and coordination of industrial structure. Research has found that: (1) there is a significant positive correlation between the upgrading and coordination of industrial structure; (2) The magnitude and speed of the increase in the lower limit of the social insurance payment base have a positive spillover effect on the upgrading of industrial structure, while the burden of the increase in the lower limit of the social insurance payment base has a negative spillover effect on the coordination of industrial structure. However, in other regions, the speed and burden of the increase in the lower limit of the social insurance payment base hinder the upgrading of local industrial structure through the "siphon effect"; (3) The increase in the ratio of capital to labor input and the increase in labor mobility will both enhance the lower limit of social insurance payment base in surrounding areas and accelerate the process of industrial structure upgrading, but have not had a significant impact on the coordination of industrial structure. To this end, policies should be implemented to promote the coupling of the lower limit of social insurance payment base with factor input adjustment and labor mobility rate, actively leverage spatial spillover effects, improve regional factor allocation efficiency and develop new quality productivity, and promote the upgrading of industrial structure.
初立苹,高静,武晓春.社保缴费基数下限上调对产业结构升级的空间溢出效应研究[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2026,33(5):95-108.
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