安徽工业大学商学院,安徽马鞍山 243032
朱克朋:安徽工业大学商学院副教授,硕士生导师,经济学博士。研究方向:国际经济。
杨丽容:安徽工业大学商学院硕士研究生。研究方向:国际贸易。
F752
本文受国家社会科学基金项目"数字经济赋能全球创新网络嵌入韧性的理论机理与实现路径研究"(项目编号:24CJY020)和安徽省社会科学创新发展研究课题"全球生产网络下安徽省制造业供应链风险与韧性研究"(课题编号:2025CX068)的资助
Business School, Anhui University of Technology, Ma'anshan 243032 , Anhui, China
在全球产业链重构与中美经贸关系复杂多变的背景下,美国对中国中间品的需求呈现高度不确定性,这深刻影响着中国企业的经营安全。本文基于2012~2024年多区域投入产出表与中国A股上市企业数据,测度美国对华中间品需求不确定性,并实证检验其对中国企业经营风险的影响。研究发现:美国对华中间品需求不确定性显著加剧了中国企业经营风险;该影响通过降低资产周转率、收紧商业信用与提高管理费用率三条渠道实现;海外收入占比会放大冲击,而现金持有能够发挥缓冲作用;非国有、西部地区及对美供给依赖度高的企业所受冲击更为突出。基于此,应构建跨部门产业链风险监测预警体系,政策制定应更具精准性与差异化,企业应强化韧性建设,构筑多维风险防线。
Against the backdrop of restructuring global value chains and the complex, volatile economic and trade relations between China and the United States, U.S. demand for Chinese intermediate goods exhibits high uncertainty, profoundly affecting the operational security of Chinese enterprises. Using multi-regional input-output tables from 2012-2024 and data on Chinese A-share listed companies, this study measures the uncertainty of U.S. demand for Chinese intermediate goods and empirically examines its impact on corporate operational risk in China. The findings reveal that uncertainty in U.S. demand for Chinese intermediate goods significantly increases the operational risk of Chinese enterprises. This effect operates through three channels: reducing asset turnover, tightening trade credit, and raising administrative expense ratios. A higher proportion of overseas income amplifies the impact, whereas cash holdings serve as an effective buffer. The adverse effects are more pronounced among non-state-owned enterprises, firms in western China, and those with higher dependency on supply to the U.S. market. Accordingly, it is recommended to establish a cross-departmental industrial chain risk monitoring and early-warning system, formulate more targeted and differentiated policies, and encourage enterprises to strengthen resilience building and construct multi-dimensional risk defenses.
朱克朋,杨丽容.美国对华中间品需求不确定性对中国企业经营风险的影响——基于全球产业链下A股上市公司的实证研究[J].上海对外经贸大学学报,2026,33(6):55-76.
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